Scientists warn: Low Earth orbit could rapidly "collapse

[Teknoloji Muhabiri]

The increasing saturation of low Earth orbit with satellites and space debris poses a significant danger. Even a few accidental collisions between satellites could trigger a chain reaction, leading to a doomsday scenario.

According to scientists, there is a growing crisis in the sky. The increasing saturation of low Earth orbit with satellites and space debris could instantly transform this region into a destructive vortex of wreckage.

In such a scenario, every vehicle launched into space would be at great risk, and falling debris could pose serious threats to Earth.

COULD TRAP HUMANITY ON THE PLANET

A new study, not yet peer-reviewed, builds upon a theoretical scenario proposed years ago by NASA scientist Donald Kessler. According to this model, known as "Kessler syndrome," even a few accidental collisions between satellites could trigger a chain reaction, leading to an increasing number of collisions and an uncontrolled accumulation of debris. At best, this process could set space travel back decades, trapping humanity on its home planet.

THOUSANDS OF SATELLITE LAUNCHES

Today, more satellites are being launched into low Earth orbit than ever before, making this scenario increasingly realistic. Elon Musk's SpaceX alone operates a "mega-constellation" of over 9,000 satellites with limited lifespans. Amazon is also reportedly preparing to establish a similar system, and China is known to be working on its own mega-constellation.

Kessler had predicted that such an orbital catastrophe would unfold over years. However, new research raises a darker possibility: What if this process is suddenly triggered by a severe solar storm?

Such eruptions from the Sun can affect Earth with electromagnetic waves, disrupting power grids and communication systems. It is theoretically possible for a sufficiently powerful storm to sever connections with satellites and disable navigation systems.

This possibility is particularly concerning. SpaceX's low-orbit satellites must constantly maneuver to avoid colliding with each other or other objects. According to company data, over 300,000 such maneuvers were performed last year alone.

DOOMSDAY CLOCK FOR SATELLITES: WILL LAST 5.5 DAYS

Researchers developed a new metric called the "CRASH clock" to study such a crisis. This indicator calculates how quickly a catastrophic collision could occur if satellites lose their navigation capabilities during an extraordinary event like a solar storm.

The results are quite striking. According to calculations, satellites in low Earth orbit come within one kilometer of each other every 36 seconds. Accordingly, the satellite doomsday would begin in just 5.5 days. This means that if such a solar storm occurs, humanity would have very limited time to intervene.